The School of Odds
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Spartak Moscow v FC Krasnodar

2026-08-09 17:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 44.22%2.26fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.91%44.22%44.15%44.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.132.142.2148.78%46.86%46.73%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 29.62%3.38fair odd
EV -0.169%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.10%29.62%29.61%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.213.3732.26%31.08%31.15%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.370%
Kelly -0.504%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%26.15%26.25%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.623.653.7728.57%27.61%27.40%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Spartak Moscow (Local): 44.22%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 29.62%; Draw: 26.15%. For FC Krasnodar (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.37, with an expected value of -0.169%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.21I 45.25%NM 44.60%EV -2.27%E -1.03%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 29.25%EV -0.169%E -0.050%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 26.15%EV -1.40%E -0.370%K -0.504%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-02 19:44
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.24%EV -4.04%E -1.86%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.45%EV -3.43%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.30%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 20:20
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 44.71%EV -5.81%E -2.73%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -5.20%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.53%EV -2.44%E -0.655%K -0.895%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 19:50
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.13%E -3.40%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.17%E -2.63%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 20:20
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -9.35%E -4.56%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -6.69%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 19:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.