The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Spartak Moscow v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:00 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 47.52%2.10fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.96%47.71%47.52%49.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.002.1551.28%49.50%49.88%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +0.630%
Kelly +0.854%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.29%26.62%26.81%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.503.463.8230.30%28.59%28.86%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.67%3.90fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.301%
Kelly -0.406%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.41%25.67%25.67%27.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.633.8529.41%27.60%27.59%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 47.52%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 26.81%; Draw: 25.67%. For FC Krasnodar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV +2.16%E +1.01%K +1.88%G +0.041%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.89%EV -6.71%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.96%EV -7.58%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-09 16:49
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -2.59%E -1.26%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -11.53%E -3.49%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.96%EV -3.54%E -1.74%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.93%EV -5.10%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.12%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.38%EV -5.91%E -2.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -7.51%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.95%EV -6.86%E -3.50%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -8.85%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -1.16%E -0.301%K -0.406%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 16:44
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.55%EV -7.34%E -3.76%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV +2.41%E +0.630%K +0.854%G +0.021%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.16%EV -1.41%E -0.368%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-09 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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