Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow v FC Fakel Voronezh

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:30 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 1–0 FC Fakel Voronezh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

74%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 73.74%1.36fair odd

EV -1.92%

Edge -1.44%

Kelly -5.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.58%73.50%73.74%74.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.291.281.3378.74%77.69%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit)

Prediction 9.24%10.82fair odd

EV +1.66%

Edge +0.151%

Kelly +0.166%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.73%9.42%9.24%11.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.009.509.6011.0012.50%10.52%10.42%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.01%5.88fair odd

EV -1.49%

Edge -0.257%

Kelly -0.311%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.60%17.09%17.01%17.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.205.535.405.7919.23%18.10%18.52%17.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 73.74%; FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit): 9.24%; Draw: 17.01%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.43%EV -4.87%E -3.77%K -16.79%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.73%EV +1.66%E +0.151%K +0.166%G +0.003%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.84%EV -3.02%E -0.530%K -0.643%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-16 15:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.57%EV -4.87%E -3.77%K -16.79%G +0.000%	10.91I 9.17%NM 8.82%EV +0.825%E +0.076%K +0.083%G +0.001%	5.79I 17.27%NM 16.61%EV -1.49%E -0.257%K -0.311%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-16 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.13%EV -6.34%E -5.00%K -23.50%G +0.000%	9.60I 10.42%NM 9.67%EV -11.28%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -8.13%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-09-16 15:20
BetUS🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.13%EV -6.34%E -5.00%K -23.50%G +0.000%	9.60I 10.42%NM 9.67%EV -11.28%E -1.18%K -1.31%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -8.13%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-09-16 15:20
Codere (IT)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.86%EV -5.61%E -4.38%K -20.02%G +0.000%	8.80I 11.36%NM 10.45%EV -18.67%E -2.12%K -2.39%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%EV -11.53%E -2.22%K -2.74%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-09-16 15:20
1xBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.25%EV -1.92%E -1.44%K -5.82%G +0.000%	8.61I 11.61%NM 11.16%EV -20.43%E -2.37%K -2.68%G +0.000%	5.79I 17.27%NM 16.60%EV -1.49%E -0.257%K -0.311%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-16 15:19
Bovada🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 71.58%EV -5.61%E -4.38%K -20.02%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -26.07%E -3.26%K -3.72%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.97%EV -8.13%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-09-16 15:18

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.