The School of Odds
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Spartak Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 68.80%1.45fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -11.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.42%68.80%69.16%69.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.3975.76%73.53%73.53%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 12.72%7.86fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.178%
Kelly +0.203%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 7.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.09%12.72%12.60%13.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.807.467.417.9714.71%13.41%13.50%12.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.47%5.41fair odd
EV -0.803%
Edge -0.150%
Kelly -0.184%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.03%18.47%18.24%19.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.125.125.3720.83%19.52%19.53%18.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 68.80%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 12.72%; Draw: 18.47%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.86. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.97, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.83%EV -5.05%E -3.66%K -13.30%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 12.09%EV +1.42%E +0.178%K +0.203%G +0.003%5.33I 18.76%NM 18.08%EV -1.54%E -0.289%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-09 15:45
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.65%EV -4.36%E -3.14%K -11.19%G +0.000%7.86I 12.72%NM 12.32%EV +0.018%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 18.03%EV -0.803%E -0.150%K -0.184%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-09 15:51
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -7.12%E -5.27%K -20.33%G +0.000%7.41I 13.50%NM 12.60%EV -5.71%E -0.770%K -0.891%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.24%EV -5.42%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-09 15:55
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.15%EV -9.18%E -6.95%K -28.69%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.59%EV -7.74%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -7.64%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-09 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.42%EV -6.43%E -4.73%K -17.86%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.48%EV -13.47%E -1.98%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.10%EV -11.33%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-09 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.