Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 3–1 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

68%

12%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 68.25%1.47fair odd

EV -3.08%

Edge -2.17%

Kelly -7.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.92%68.25%68.77%69.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.391.401.4274.63%71.94%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 12.39%8.07fair odd

EV +1.57%

Edge +0.192%

Kelly +0.218%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 8.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.79%12.39%12.08%13.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.007.717.898.2014.29%12.97%12.67%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.36%5.17fair odd

EV -2.04%

Edge -0.403%

Kelly -0.502%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.14%19.36%19.15%19.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.704.915.035.0621.28%20.37%19.88%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 68.25%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 12.39%; Draw: 19.36%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.06%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%	8.20I 12.20%NM 11.79%EV +1.57%E +0.192%K +0.218%G +0.003%	5.05I 19.80%NM 19.15%EV -2.23%E -0.442%K -0.551%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-19 13:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.78%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%	7.97I 12.55%NM 12.08%EV -1.28%E -0.160%K -0.183%G +0.000%	5.03I 19.88%NM 19.14%EV -2.62%E -0.521%K -0.650%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-19 13:45
1xBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 68.46%EV -3.08%E -2.17%K -7.33%G +0.000%	7.89I 12.67%NM 12.32%EV -2.27%E -0.287%K -0.329%G +0.000%	5.06I 19.76%NM 19.21%EV -2.04%E -0.403%K -0.502%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-04-19 13:50
Bovada🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.32%EV -8.54%E -6.37%K -25.12%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%EV -7.10%E -0.946%K -1.09%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -9.01%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-04-19 13:47
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.92%EV -5.13%E -3.69%K -13.15%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -13.29%E -1.90%K -2.22%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -9.01%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-19 13:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.