The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Rubin Kazan v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.477%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.17%25.70%25.63%26.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.673.703.8228.57%27.23%27.03%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 44.86%2.23fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.24%44.86%44.93%45.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.122.1848.78%47.08%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.43%3.40fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.868%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.10%29.43%29.44%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.243.263.3031.75%30.88%30.67%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 25.70%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 44.86%; Draw: 29.43%. For Rubin Kazan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.82, with an expected value of -1.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 25.17%EV -1.82%E -0.477%K -0.646%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.35%EV -4.89%E -2.31%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.49%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-15 15:49
Pinnacle🎯3.77I 26.53%NM 25.67%EV -3.11%E -0.824%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -3.54%E -1.65%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.32%EV -2.87%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 15:45
1xBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%EV -4.91%E -1.33%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.45%EV -2.20%E -1.01%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%EV -2.87%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.27%EV -8.25%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -4.89%E -2.31%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.49%EV -6.40%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 15:55
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.05%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.03%E -3.92%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -7.28%E -2.31%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-15 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.