The School of Odds
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Rubin Kazan v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:15 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 0–2 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 40.40%2.47fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.17%40.40%40.33%40.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.342.352.3944.44%42.67%42.46%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.328%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.26%29.04%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.243.3833.33%31.10%30.86%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.34%3.30fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.527%
Kelly -0.763%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.66%30.34%30.63%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.163.193.2432.79%31.68%31.40%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 40.40%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 29.26%; Draw: 30.34%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.38, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.17%EV -3.43%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.19%EV -6.96%E -2.19%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.63%EV -1.71%E -0.527%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.84%EV -4.24%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.63%EV -1.11%E -0.328%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.53%EV -3.83%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-24 13:50
1xBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.53%EV -4.24%E -1.79%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.74%EV -5.50%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.74%EV -2.01%E -0.623%K -0.902%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 14:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.21%EV -5.45%E -2.33%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:55
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.21%EV -5.45%E -2.33%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.85%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.23%E -4.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.