The School of Odds
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Rubin Kazan v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 13:30 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 0–0 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 40.22%2.49fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.69%40.22%40.45%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.372.4045.45%43.18%42.19%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV +2.24%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +0.897%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.21%29.00%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.323.353.5031.75%30.12%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.56%3.27fair odd
EV +2.39%
Edge +0.713%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.91%30.56%30.55%30.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.163.143.3532.79%31.63%31.85%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 40.22%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 29.21%; Draw: 30.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.43%EV -10.30%E -4.62%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.67%EV +2.24%E +0.641%K +0.897%G +0.020%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV +2.39%E +0.713%K +1.02%G +0.024%3.3%2026-04-11 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.67%EV -4.27%E -1.79%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.89%EV -2.14%E -0.639%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.44%EV -2.81%E -0.883%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 13:20
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.31%EV -3.46%E -1.44%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -2.14%E -0.639%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.81%EV -4.03%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 13:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -4.67%E -1.97%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.44%EV -5.56%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:19
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.70%EV -11.51%E -5.23%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.23%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -6.78%E -2.22%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.