The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rubin Kazan v Gazovik Orenburg

2026-08-09 17:30 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 49.53%2.02fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.37%49.53%49.53%49.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.931.931.9953.48%51.81%51.81%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 22.76%4.39fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.495%
Kelly -0.646%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.65%22.76%22.76%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.174.204.3025.00%23.95%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.71%3.61fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.56%27.71%27.71%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.453.453.5629.85%28.96%28.99%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rubin Kazan (Local): 49.53%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 22.76%; Draw: 27.71%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.56, with an expected value of -1.36%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 49.46%EV -1.43%E -0.721%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.89%EV -2.13%E -0.495%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.65%EV -1.36%E -0.381%K -0.529%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-02 17:49
Marathon Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.52%EV -3.91%E -2.02%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.87%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.61%EV -3.57%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 17:49
Pinnacle1.92I 52.08%NM 49.54%EV -4.90%E -2.55%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.81%EV -5.23%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 18:50
Bovada1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -7.38%E -3.95%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.96%E -2.24%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -7.17%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.