The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Rubin Kazan v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:30 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 1–1 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 45.19%2.21fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%45.14%45.19%48.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.062.1452.36%48.70%48.54%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.89%4.02fair odd
EV -0.173%
Edge -0.043%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.15%25.07%24.89%25.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.823.834.0128.17%26.19%26.14%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.91%3.34fair odd
EV +3.49%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%29.79%29.91%30.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.233.4632.26%30.83%31.01%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 45.19%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 24.89%; Draw: 29.91%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.78%EV -8.26%E -4.07%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.19%EV -0.173%E -0.043%K -0.057%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.03%EV +3.49%E +1.01%K +1.42%G +0.050%3.1%2026-08-09 17:20
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -13.68%E -7.16%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -1.29%E -0.391%K -0.562%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 17:19
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.22%EV -3.29%E -1.54%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -2.91%E -0.746%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.96%EV -3.39%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.27%EV -4.19%E -1.98%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV -4.16%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.80%EV -3.68%E -1.14%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 17:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.00%EV -7.80%E -3.83%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -11.62%E -3.27%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -5.78%E -1.83%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.08%EV -6.00%E -2.88%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.40%E -1.42%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -7.27%E -2.35%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.