Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan v FC Nizhny Novgorod

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 2–2 FC Nizhny Novgorod

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

44%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 44.42%2.25fair odd

EV -3.16%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -2.68%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.51%44.42%44.55%45.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.132.122.1847.62%46.95%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit)

Prediction 27.55%3.63fair odd

EV +0.567%

Edge +0.155%

Kelly +0.214%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.89%27.55%27.52%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.473.493.6530.77%28.82%28.65%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd

EV -0.784%

Edge -0.221%

Kelly -0.309%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.83%28.03%27.93%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.403.403.5430.77%29.43%29.41%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 44.42%; FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit): 27.55%; Draw: 28.03%. For FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.567%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%EV -3.16%E -1.45%K -2.68%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%EV +0.567%E +0.155%K +0.214%G +0.001%	3.54I 28.25%NM 27.83%EV -0.784%E -0.221%K -0.309%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-05-17 10:40
Pinnacle🎯	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.20%EV -5.38%E -2.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%	3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV -1.36%E -0.380%K -0.528%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.91%EV -3.31%E -0.958%K -1.35%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.32%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.11%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 43.51%EV -6.27%E -2.97%K -5.65%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -10.45%E -3.22%K -4.65%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-17 06:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.