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Rubin Kazan v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 17.17%5.82fair odd
EV -0.227%
Edge -0.039%
Kelly -0.047%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.57%17.15%17.17%17.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.475.405.8119.23%18.28%18.50%17.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 56.33%1.78fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.69%56.33%56.33%56.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.681.691.7460.98%59.41%59.35%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.50%3.77fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.752%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.27%26.52%26.50%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.583.583.6728.99%27.97%27.89%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 17.17%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 56.33%; Draw: 26.50%. For Rubin Kazan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.81, with an expected value of -0.227%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.81I 17.21%NM 16.57%EV -0.227%E -0.039%K -0.047%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.97%EV -4.80%E -2.84%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.45%EV -3.55%E -0.976%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.68%EV -0.399%E -0.069%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.90%EV -4.24%E -2.49%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.43%EV -3.02%E -0.826%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 13:50
1xBet🎯5.51I 18.15%NM 17.64%EV -5.38%E -0.976%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.87%EV -1.98%E -1.14%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.49%EV -2.76%E -0.752%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.68%EV -8.99%E -1.70%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.78%EV -5.36%E -3.19%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.54%EV -6.47%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 13:55
Bovada🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -10.70%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.06%EV -7.62%E -4.64%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.26%E -2.08%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -10.70%E -2.06%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.69%EV -7.05%E -4.28%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.59%E -2.49%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.