The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rubin Kazan v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 16:30 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 1–3 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV +0.314%
Edge +0.081%
Kelly +0.109%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.79%25.60%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.653.603.8928.57%27.40%27.78%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 43.25%2.31fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.998%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.80%43.25%43.06%44.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.2647.62%45.50%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.96%3.23fair odd
EV +0.628%
Edge +0.193%
Kelly +0.279%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.75%30.96%31.34%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.133.103.2533.56%31.99%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 25.79%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 43.25%; Draw: 30.96%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.628%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.15%EV -2.69%E -1.19%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.88%EV +0.628%E +0.193%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.0%2026-07-26 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 27.17%EV -8.20%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.80%EV -2.26%E -0.998%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.04%EV -0.301%E -0.093%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-26 16:25
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -9.18%E -4.37%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -4.02%E -1.30%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 16:19
Pinnacle🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.71%EV +0.314%E +0.081%K +0.109%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.09%EV -5.72%E -2.62%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.20%EV -4.64%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.59%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -4.85%E -2.20%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -7.73%E -2.59%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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