The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rubin Kazan v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 16:30 UTC

Final: Rubin Kazan 1–1 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rubin Kazan (Local)

Prediction 33.21%3.01fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.80%33.25%33.21%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.822.862.9137.74%35.48%34.97%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 35.29%2.83fair odd
EV +0.583%
Edge +0.204%
Kelly +0.315%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%35.34%35.29%36.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8539.22%36.96%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.50%3.17fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.61%31.40%31.50%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.013.003.1033.90%33.18%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rubin Kazan (Local): 33.21%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 35.29%; Draw: 31.50%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.583%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.65%EV -7.02%E -2.51%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.05%EV +0.583%E +0.204%K +0.315%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.30%EV -2.35%E -0.758%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 16:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.60%EV -5.03%E -1.76%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.57%EV -1.89%E -0.679%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.82%EV -4.87%E -1.61%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 16:25
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.22%EV -3.37%E -1.16%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.28%EV -3.30%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.49%EV -3.29%E -1.07%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-07 16:25
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -12.00%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -4.71%E -1.74%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -7.07%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 16:23
BetOnline.ag🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.80%EV -4.36%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.51%EV -6.12%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.70%EV -6.13%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:19
BetUS🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.80%EV -4.36%E -1.51%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.51%EV -6.12%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.70%EV -6.13%E -2.06%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -8.68%E -3.16%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -10.01%E -3.92%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -5.50%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.