Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:30 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 1–1 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

31%

39%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 30.80%3.25fair odd

EV -2.98%

Edge -0.947%

Kelly -1.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.70%31.08%30.80%33.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.972.973.1536.36%33.67%33.61%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd

EV +0.102%

Edge +0.040%

Kelly +0.067%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.87%39.33%39.41%39.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.342.432.422.5442.74%41.24%41.41%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.79%3.36fair odd

EV -1.10%

Edge -0.330%

Kelly -0.473%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.65%29.58%29.79%30.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.213.213.3232.26%31.17%31.15%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 30.80%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 39.41%; Draw: 29.79%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.537. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.540, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.102%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.17%EV -10.68%E -3.68%K -5.62%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.87%EV +0.102%E +0.040%K +0.067%G +0.000%	3.32I 30.12%NM 28.97%EV -1.10%E -0.330%K -0.473%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-09-16 15:25
Pinnacle🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.70%EV -2.98%E -0.947%K -1.39%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.63%EV -3.84%E -1.57%K -2.67%G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67%NM 29.66%EV -2.88%E -0.885%K -1.28%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-16 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯	3.12I 32.05%NM 30.74%EV -3.91%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.47%EV -4.23%E -1.74%K -2.96%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.79%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.84%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-16 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -6.06%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -7.65%E -2.47%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-16 15:25
Bovada🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -15.30%E -5.56%K -8.74%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -6.16%E -1.96%K -2.87%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-09-16 15:26
Codere (IT)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.17%EV -12.22%E -4.29%K -6.61%G +0.000%	2.34I 42.74%NM 39.18%EV -7.78%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV -4.67%E -1.46%K -2.12%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-09-16 15:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.