Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 16:30 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 2–2 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

33%

40%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 32.53%3.07fair odd

EV -1.11%

Edge -0.366%

Kelly -0.545%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.53%32.40%32.53%32.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.942.943.0435.71%34.03%34.07%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 39.91%2.51fair odd

EV -3.82%

Edge -1.58%

Kelly -2.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.67%40.00%39.91%41.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.332.352.4145.45%42.83%42.46%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.56%3.63fair odd

EV -1.88%

Edge -0.529%

Kelly -0.736%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.90%27.60%27.56%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.353.453.423.5629.85%28.99%29.24%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 32.53%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 39.91%; Draw: 27.56%. For Rodina Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.04, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	3.04I 32.89%NM 31.64%EV -1.11%E -0.366%K -0.545%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.41%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000%	3.44I 29.07%NM 27.96%EV -5.19%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-19 16:06
1xBet🎯	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.80%EV -1.76%E -0.584%K -0.872%G +0.000%	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.22%EV -7.01%E -3.01%K -5.27%G +0.000%	3.56I 28.09%NM 26.98%EV -1.88%E -0.529%K -0.736%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-19 16:20
Pinnacle🎯	2.97I 33.67%NM 32.58%EV -3.39%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -3.82%E -1.58%K -2.71%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -2.16%E -0.608%K -0.847%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-19 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.67%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -5.01%E -2.11%K -3.63%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-19 16:15
Bovada🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -5.67%E -1.95%K -2.98%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -12.20%E -5.54%K -10.16%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -6.29%E -1.85%K -2.62%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-10-19 16:20
Codere (IT)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.81%EV -8.92%E -3.19%K -4.95%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.77%EV -7.81%E -3.38%K -5.96%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -7.67%E -2.29%K -3.26%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-10-19 15:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.