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Rodina Moscow v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:00 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 2–4 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 31.23%3.20fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.01%31.23%31.08%31.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.053.1234.48%32.98%32.79%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 39.18%2.55fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.821%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%39.18%39.45%39.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.452.5042.55%41.02%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.59%3.38fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%29.59%29.47%29.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.283.3032.26%31.02%30.49%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 31.23%; FK Rostov (Visit): 39.18%; Draw: 29.59%. For FK Rostov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -2.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 31.01%EV -2.56%E -0.821%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.50%EV -2.94%E -0.897%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 16:54
Pinnacle🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.11%EV -2.87%E -0.924%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -4.01%E -1.64%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -2.65%E -0.805%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-31 16:55
1xBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%EV -4.75%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%EV -2.05%E -0.821%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -2.35%E -0.712%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-31 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -6.93%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -4.40%E -1.80%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.79%E -2.16%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-31 16:29
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -9.43%E -3.25%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -7.93%E -3.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -8.27%E -2.67%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-31 16:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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