The School of Odds
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Rodina Moscow v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 16:45 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 2–1 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 19.76%5.06fair odd
EV +0.001%
Edge +0.000%
Kelly +0.000%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.00%19.67%19.76%19.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.854.825.0621.28%20.62%20.75%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 56.64%1.77fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.55%56.72%56.64%57.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.651.661.7162.89%60.48%60.24%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.60%4.24fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.440%
Kelly -0.579%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.99%23.62%23.60%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.034.034.1625.97%24.81%24.84%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 19.76%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 56.64%; Draw: 23.60%. For Rodina Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.0599. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.0600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.001%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.06I 19.76%NM 19.00%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.90%EV -5.98%E -3.60%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.10%EV -1.83%E -0.440%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.19%EV -1.18%E -0.237%K -0.296%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.12%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.69%EV -4.43%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 16:05
Pinnacle🎯4.84I 20.66%NM 19.98%EV -4.35%E -0.898%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.55%EV -3.15%E -1.84%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.47%EV -2.77%E -0.673%K -0.889%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-31 16:36
Bovada🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -5.14%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.85%EV -9.94%E -6.25%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -5.61%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 16:31
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -7.11%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.55%EV -5.98%E -3.60%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -5.61%E -1.40%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-31 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -7.11%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.64%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.15%E -2.38%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-31 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.