The School of Odds
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Rodina Moscow v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 12:00 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 0–3 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 29.77%3.36fair odd
EV +0.313%
Edge +0.093%
Kelly +0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.80%29.75%29.77%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.223.223.3732.79%31.07%31.06%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 39.38%2.54fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.56%39.35%39.38%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.402.4644.44%42.11%41.75%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.85%3.24fair odd
EV -0.970%
Edge -0.302%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.12%30.91%30.85%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.093.063.2133.56%32.40%32.63%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 29.77%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 39.38%; Draw: 30.85%. For Rodina Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.313%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.80%EV +0.313%E +0.093%K +0.132%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.96%EV -6.66%E -2.81%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.24%EV -0.970%E -0.302%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -1.77%E -0.537%K -0.770%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.70%EV -4.69%E -1.94%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.19%EV -4.98%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 11:55
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.89%EV -3.56%E -1.10%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.37%EV -3.12%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -2.82%E -0.896%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 11:50
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -4.75%E -1.48%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -11.39%E -5.06%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -5.91%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.24%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -3.91%E -1.60%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -8.07%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.12%EV -9.21%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.77%EV -9.02%E -3.91%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.12%EV -5.91%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.