Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

2026-08-15 11:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

38%

35%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 37.64%2.66fair odd

EV -1.75%

Edge -0.672%

Kelly -1.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.45%37.64%37.64%37.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.392.492.482.6141.84%40.13%40.32%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 34.56%2.89fair odd

EV -1.85%

Edge -0.651%

Kelly -1.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.40%34.56%34.51%34.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.712.702.8438.46%36.90%37.04%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd

EV -0.764%

Edge -0.214%

Kelly -0.297%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.40%27.80%27.85%28.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.393.353.5730.30%29.52%29.85%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Rodina Moscow (Local): 37.64%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 34.56%; Draw: 27.80%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.57, with an expected value of -0.764%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.73%EV -1.75%E -0.672%K -1.09%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 34.68%EV -1.85%E -0.651%K -1.00%G +0.000%	3.57I 28.01%NM 27.59%EV -0.764%E -0.214%K -0.297%G +0.000%	1.5%	2026-08-13 12:44
Pinnacle🎯	2.53I 39.53%NM 37.64%EV -4.77%E -1.88%K -3.11%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.51%EV -4.61%E -1.67%K -2.62%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -4.93%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-13 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -6.65%E -2.68%K -4.49%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -6.69%E -2.48%K -3.93%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.27%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-13 13:45
Bovada🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.65%EV -7.78%E -3.17%K -5.36%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.81%EV -8.41%E -3.18%K -5.10%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.54%EV -6.88%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-08-13 12:44
Codere (IT)🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 37.83%EV -10.04%E -4.20%K -7.22%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.77%EV -10.14%E -3.90%K -6.34%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.27%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-13 12:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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