The School of Odds
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Rodina Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: Rodina Moscow 3–3 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rodina Moscow (Local)

Prediction 41.33%2.42fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.98%41.33%41.75%42.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.292.3445.45%43.94%43.67%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 32.03%3.12fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.03%31.78%32.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.943.003.0335.71%34.04%33.33%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.64%3.75fair odd
EV -0.896%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.01%26.64%26.46%27.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.563.553.7229.85%28.11%28.17%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rodina Moscow (Local): 41.33%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 32.03%; Draw: 26.64%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.72, with an expected value of -0.896%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.41%EV -3.29%E -1.40%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.19%EV -3.59%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.40%EV -2.23%E -0.607%K -0.835%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-15 10:49
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -4.94%E -2.15%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.93%EV -2.95%E -0.974%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.01%EV -0.896%E -0.241%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 10:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.98%EV -5.35%E -2.34%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.70%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -10.75%E -3.21%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 10:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -7.01%E -3.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.43%E -1.53%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 10:44
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -9.07%E -4.12%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -8.72%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.76%E -1.93%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 10:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.