The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 0–0 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 28.53%3.50fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -0.997%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.30%28.53%28.48%28.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.393.4231.25%29.92%29.50%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 44.31%2.26fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.33%44.31%44.70%44.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.162.2048.78%46.47%46.30%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.397%
Kelly -0.547%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.66%27.15%26.83%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.513.553.6329.85%28.52%28.17%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 28.53%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 44.31%; Draw: 27.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.63, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -2.41%E -0.705%K -0.997%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.81%EV -4.28%E -1.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.89%EV -2.25%E -0.626%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-22 16:39
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -2.98%E -0.877%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 16:34
Pinnacle🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 28.54%EV -3.27%E -0.964%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.80%EV -4.28%E -1.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -1.44%E -0.397%K -0.547%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-22 16:34
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76%EV -5.84%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.33%EV -2.95%E -1.35%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-22 16:40
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -8.69%E -2.72%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 16:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.