The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 16:45 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 0–4 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 18.74%5.34fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +0.822%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 5.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.30%18.57%18.74%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.085.105.5821.28%19.70%19.61%17.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 58.96%1.70fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -5.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.24%59.17%58.96%60.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.591.6463.69%62.61%62.89%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.30%4.49fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.226%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.57%22.26%22.30%22.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.184.104.4525.00%23.90%24.39%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 18.74%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 58.96%; Draw: 22.30%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.58I 17.92%NM 17.30%EV +4.59%E +0.822%K +1.00%G +0.046%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.35%EV -5.66%E -3.54%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.35%EV -3.68%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 16:40
1xBet🎯5.16I 19.38%NM 18.63%EV -3.28%E -0.636%K -0.789%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.60%EV -3.31%E -2.02%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.77%EV -5.91%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 16:33
BetOnline.ag🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -4.41%E -0.864%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.84%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -8.58%E -2.09%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 16:30
BetUS🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -4.41%E -0.864%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.84%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -8.58%E -2.09%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.19%EV -6.28%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.24%EV -4.48%E -2.77%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.57%EV -0.781%E -0.175%K -0.226%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-01 16:31
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -8.16%E -1.66%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -7.43%E -4.73%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.81%E -2.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 16:34
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -11.91%E -2.53%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.24%EV -7.43%E -4.73%K -13.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -8.58%E -2.09%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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