The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Spartak Moscow

2026-11-01 16:45 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 21.81%4.59fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -0.790%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.28%21.81%21.81%22.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.324.364.4624.39%23.16%22.96%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 53.94%1.85fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.88%53.94%53.94%54.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.771.8358.82%56.58%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.25%4.12fair odd
EV +0.630%
Edge +0.152%
Kelly +0.200%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.56%24.25%24.25%24.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.833.983.974.1526.11%25.11%25.16%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 21.81%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 53.94%; Draw: 24.25%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.15, producing a positive expected value of +0.630%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.41I 22.68%NM 22.36%EV -3.82%E -0.867%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.88%EV -1.28%E -0.702%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.76%EV +0.630%E +0.152%K +0.200%G +0.001%1.4%2026-10-25 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%EV -6.22%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.95%EV -3.98%E -2.24%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.71%EV -1.79%E -0.443%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 17:35
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -10.58%E -2.58%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -8.30%E -4.88%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -5.43%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 17:29
Pinnacle🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.28%EV -2.73%E -0.613%K -0.790%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.06%E -2.88%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.78%EV -7.13%E -1.86%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.