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Lokomotiv Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov

2026-09-16 17:45 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 51.08%1.96fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.30%51.08%51.08%51.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.841.851.9156.50%54.20%54.20%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.439%
Kelly +0.574%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.16%23.97%23.98%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.963.954.2526.67%25.22%25.35%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.96%4.01fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.555%
Kelly -0.744%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%24.96%24.93%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.773.763.9227.40%26.51%26.60%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 51.08%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 23.97%; Draw: 24.96%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.64%EV -2.45%E -1.28%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.21%EV +1.87%E +0.439%K +0.574%G +0.011%3.92I 25.51%NM 25.16%EV -2.17%E -0.555%K -0.744%G +0.000%1.4%2026-09-12 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.68%EV -5.00%E -2.69%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.16%EV -0.530%E -0.128%K -0.168%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.16%EV -4.67%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 18:03
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.73%EV -9.60%E -5.42%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -5.32%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -8.91%E -2.44%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 18:07
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.25%EV -5.51%E -2.98%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.06%EV -5.56%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.69%EV -4.17%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.30%EV -6.02%E -3.27%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -10.12%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 18:45
BetUS🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.30%EV -6.02%E -3.27%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -10.12%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.66%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 18:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.