The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 17:45 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 48.99%2.04fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.18%48.99%49.23%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.951.962.0053.19%51.28%51.02%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 25.14%3.98fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.849%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.89%25.14%24.97%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.763.763.8827.40%26.62%26.60%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.87%3.87fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -0.728%
Kelly -0.992%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%25.87%25.80%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.653.663.7628.57%27.43%27.32%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 48.99%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 25.14%; Draw: 25.87%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.18%EV -2.02%E -1.01%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -8.23%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -9.46%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -3.98%E -2.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.89%EV -2.44%E -0.630%K -0.849%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.83%EV -3.26%E -0.871%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-16 17:36
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.02%EV -3.98%E -2.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.15%EV -3.95%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.83%EV -3.77%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-16 17:36
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.21%EV -3.98%E -2.03%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.97%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.88%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -4.96%E -2.56%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -3.45%E -0.899%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.53%EV -2.74%E -0.728%K -0.992%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-16 17:40
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -7.90%E -4.20%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -8.23%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -8.17%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.