The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Nizhny Novgorod

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 63.95%1.56fair odd
EV -0.870%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.27%63.95%64.07%64.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.481.5569.93%67.57%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit)

Prediction 14.43%6.93fair odd
EV -0.405%
Edge -0.059%
Kelly -0.069%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.98%14.43%14.32%15.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.416.406.9016.67%15.59%15.63%14.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.61%4.63fair odd
EV +0.058%
Edge +0.013%
Kelly +0.016%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%21.61%21.62%21.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.404.304.6323.26%22.75%23.26%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 63.95%; FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit): 14.43%; Draw: 21.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.627. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.630, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.058%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.58%EV -0.870%E -0.561%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.51I 15.36%NM 15.14%EV -6.03%E -0.927%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 21.28%EV +0.058%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000%1.5%2026-02-28 13:45
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.33%EV -4.07%E -2.71%K -8.14%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.98%EV -0.405%E -0.059%K -0.069%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.68%EV -3.83%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.27%EV -5.35%E -3.61%K -11.14%G +0.000%6.26I 15.97%NM 14.96%EV -9.64%E -1.54%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -7.07%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-28 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.27%EV -8.54%E -5.98%K -19.87%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -7.62%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -7.07%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 09:20
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.90%E -5.49%K -17.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -13.40%E -2.23%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -7.07%E -1.64%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 13:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.