The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 13:30 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 58.74%1.70fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.55%58.52%58.74%60.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.631.6865.36%61.92%61.35%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 16.33%6.13fair odd
EV +3.02%
Edge +0.478%
Kelly +0.568%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 6.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.30%16.48%16.33%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.235.865.976.3119.12%17.07%16.74%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.640%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%24.99%24.94%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.683.813.793.9127.17%26.28%26.35%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 58.74%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 16.33%; Draw: 24.94%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.31, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -5.43%E -3.37%K -8.90%G +0.000%6.31I 15.85%NM 15.30%EV +3.02%E +0.478%K +0.568%G +0.017%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.75%EV -2.75%E -0.705%K -0.948%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-12 13:00
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.59%EV -1.32%E -0.786%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 16.24%EV -1.07%E -0.176%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 25.17%EV -2.50%E -0.640%K -0.859%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-12 13:10
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -10.13%E -6.62%K -19.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -2.04%E -0.341%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.49%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 12:52
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.58%EV -3.08%E -1.87%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV -2.86%E -0.481%K -0.578%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.17%EV -4.25%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 13:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.01%EV -8.37%E -5.36%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -8.58%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.49%E -1.73%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 01:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.55%EV -2.49%E -1.50%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 17.95%EV -14.62%E -2.79%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.51%EV -8.24%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.