The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 49.84%2.01fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.12%49.84%49.44%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.961.9854.64%51.81%51.02%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 23.67%4.22fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.720%
Kelly -0.953%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%23.67%23.64%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.974.014.1027.03%25.21%24.94%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.49%3.77fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -0.902%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.59%26.49%26.92%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.603.6529.41%28.03%27.78%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 49.84%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 23.67%; Draw: 26.49%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.98, with an expected value of -1.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%EV -1.33%E -0.670%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.18%EV -5.08%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.86%EV -4.35%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.01%EV -1.82%E -0.926%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.02%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.97%EV -5.15%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-10 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.44%EV -2.32%E -1.19%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -2.95%E -0.720%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -4.62%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 16:25
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -4.81%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -12.42%E -3.36%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.92%E -2.92%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 16:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -8.80%E -4.81%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -5.32%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -3.29%E -0.902%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.