The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 68.17%1.47fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.20%68.17%68.17%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4473.53%71.56%71.68%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 13.32%7.51fair odd
EV -0.926%
Edge -0.124%
Kelly -0.144%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.95%13.32%13.32%15.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.706.687.4416.67%14.93%14.98%13.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.51%5.40fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.262%
Kelly +0.320%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.57%18.51%18.51%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.245.245.4820.00%19.08%19.08%18.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 68.17%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 13.32%; Draw: 18.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.36%EV -1.83%E -1.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV -13.58%E -2.09%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.70%EV +1.44%E +0.262%K +0.320%G +0.005%3.1%2026-03-22 15:50
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.81%EV -4.56%E -3.26%K -11.39%G +0.000%7.44I 13.44%NM 12.95%EV -0.926%E -0.124%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 18.24%EV -2.27%E -0.429%K -0.529%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 15:45
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.20%EV -7.28%E -5.36%K -20.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -20.10%E -3.35%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -3.75%E -0.721%K -0.892%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.54%EV -5.24%E -3.77%K -13.43%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 13.69%EV -8.65%E -1.26%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV -7.45%E -1.49%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.