The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

2026-08-08 15:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 65.01%1.54fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -4.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.90%65.01%65.01%65.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.431.5071.43%69.44%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 14.86%6.73fair odd
EV +2.84%
Edge +0.411%
Kelly +0.480%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 6.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.25%14.86%14.86%14.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.426.286.9216.13%15.58%15.92%14.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.13%4.97fair odd
EV -0.970%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.247%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.91%20.13%20.13%20.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.694.674.9222.22%21.32%21.41%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 65.01%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 14.86%; Draw: 20.13%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.73. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.92, producing a positive expected value of +2.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 65.72%EV -2.48%E -1.66%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 14.25%EV +2.84%E +0.411%K +0.480%G +0.014%4.92I 20.33%NM 20.04%EV -0.970%E -0.197%K -0.247%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-01 16:25
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 65.12%EV -5.74%E -3.96%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.31I 15.85%NM 14.96%EV -6.22%E -0.986%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 19.92%EV -4.59%E -0.969%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 17:20
Bovada1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -8.99%E -6.42%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -7.11%E -1.14%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -7.41%E -1.61%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 16:27
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 64.90%EV -8.34%E -5.91%K -20.33%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -7.86%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -9.42%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 17:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.