The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 0–0 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 63.82%1.57fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -8.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.55%63.82%63.92%65.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.461.491.5070.92%68.31%67.11%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 16.27%6.15fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.496%
Kelly +0.589%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 6.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.27%16.32%17.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.946.006.3418.18%16.82%16.67%15.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.91%5.02fair odd
EV -0.251%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.063%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%19.91%19.76%20.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.784.705.0121.74%20.94%21.28%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 63.82%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 16.27%; Draw: 19.91%. For FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.26%EV -4.91%E -3.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%6.34I 15.77%NM 15.34%EV +3.14%E +0.496%K +0.589%G +0.018%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.41%EV -0.251%E -0.050%K -0.063%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-08 14:54
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.80%EV -4.91%E -3.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.37%EV +2.17%E +0.345%K +0.410%G +0.009%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.83%EV -3.04%E -0.624%K -0.785%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-08 14:45
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.15%EV -10.01%E -7.10%K -24.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -2.39%E -0.398%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -6.42%E -1.37%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 14:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%EV -8.74%E -6.11%K -20.31%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -8.90%E -1.59%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.42%E -1.37%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -4.27%E -2.85%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -10.52%E -1.91%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.41%E -1.83%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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