The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 55.82%1.79fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.56%55.90%55.82%57.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.691.7460.98%59.11%59.35%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 20.63%4.85fair odd
EV +3.16%
Edge +0.633%
Kelly +0.791%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.28%20.47%20.63%21.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.644.635.0023.26%21.57%21.62%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -0.729%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%23.64%23.54%24.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.994.004.1526.32%25.07%25.00%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 55.82%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 20.63%; Draw: 23.54%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.38%EV -6.22%E -3.70%K -9.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.28%EV +3.16%E +0.633%K +0.791%G +0.025%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.34%EV -2.77%E -0.670%K -0.884%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-09 13:25
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.79%EV -2.87%E -1.65%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.31%EV -1.37%E -0.288%K -0.364%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.91%EV -4.41%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-09 13:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.29%EV -3.98%E -2.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.38%EV -1.99%E -0.420%K -0.532%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.33%EV -2.30%E -0.553%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-09 13:24
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.85%EV -8.45%E -5.15%K -13.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.15%E -1.59%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -9.36%E -2.43%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 13:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.37%EV -5.66%E -3.35%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 20.89%EV -7.56%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.75%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-09 13:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.56%EV -6.22%E -3.70%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -11.28%E -2.62%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-09 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.