The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lokomotiv Moscow v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 14:00 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 54.67%1.83fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.47%54.67%54.62%54.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.741.751.7859.52%57.47%57.14%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 21.13%4.73fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%21.13%20.81%22.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.534.504.6822.73%22.08%22.22%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.20%4.13fair odd
EV +0.428%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.136%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.32%24.20%24.58%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.893.904.1527.03%25.68%25.64%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 54.67%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 21.13%; Draw: 24.20%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.428%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.68%EV -3.23%E -1.82%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.32%EV +0.428%E +0.103%K +0.136%G +0.001%3.3%2026-07-26 13:50
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.51%EV -2.68%E -1.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.73%EV -1.13%E -0.241%K -0.307%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.75%EV -5.14%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-26 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.84%EV -4.32%E -2.47%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.55%EV -1.34%E -0.287%K -0.365%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.61%EV -5.62%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-26 13:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -5.96%E -3.47%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.93%E -1.10%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 13:50
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -8.15%E -4.85%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -7.04%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -10.46%E -2.83%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-26 13:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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