The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:00 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 0–1 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 22.47%4.45fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.257%
Kelly -0.333%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%22.70%22.47%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.214.254.4025.97%23.77%23.53%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 52.40%1.91fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.37%52.07%52.40%53.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.801.821.8358.14%55.51%54.95%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -0.739%
Edge -0.187%
Kelly -0.251%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%25.23%25.13%25.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.783.753.9528.17%26.46%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 22.47%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 52.40%; Draw: 25.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.95, with an expected value of -0.739%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 22.07%EV -1.13%E -0.257%K -0.333%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.35%EV -4.63%E -2.54%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%EV -0.739%E -0.187%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 16:45
Pinnacle🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%EV -3.38%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.81%EV -4.11%E -2.24%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.72%EV -1.74%E -0.446%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-29 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -3.38%E -0.786%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.63%EV -6.20%E -3.47%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.02%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.50%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.11%E -2.24%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.94%EV -3.25%E -0.845%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 16:50
BetUS🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -4.50%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.68%E -3.15%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:50
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -7.87%E -1.92%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.24%EV -9.87%E -5.74%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.81%EV -13.49%E -3.50%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.37%EV -4.63%E -2.54%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -10.79%E -3.04%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.