The School of Odds
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Lokomotiv Moscow v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 16:30 UTC

Final: Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lokomotiv Moscow (Local)

Prediction 42.75%2.34fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.44%42.75%42.77%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.232.252.2846.51%44.88%44.44%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 32.47%3.08fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.05%32.47%32.51%32.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.932.952.9735.71%34.18%33.90%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.78%4.03fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.405%
Kelly -0.541%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.43%24.78%24.72%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.873.913.9726.67%25.87%25.58%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lokomotiv Moscow (Local): 42.75%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 32.47%; Draw: 24.78%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.97, with an expected value of -1.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.44%EV -2.54%E -1.11%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -4.22%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.75%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-01 16:20
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.91%EV -3.39%E -1.50%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.66%EV -3.57%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.43%EV -1.61%E -0.405%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-01 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.97%EV -3.82%E -1.70%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.55%EV -3.57%E -1.20%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.48%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-01 16:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.96%E -2.71%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.05%EV -4.54%E -1.55%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 16:09
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -8.09%E -3.76%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -9.09%E -3.25%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-01 16:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.