The School of Odds
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Kryliya Sovetov v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 14:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 2–1 Spartak Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -0.601%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.96%22.26%22.00%22.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.274.374.4024.39%23.41%22.88%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 53.51%1.87fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.56%53.51%53.85%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.791.8058.82%56.43%55.87%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.23%4.13fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.530%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.79%24.23%24.16%24.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.953.994.0626.32%25.32%25.06%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 22.26%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 53.51%; Draw: 24.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.06, with an expected value of -1.62%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%EV -2.04%E -0.465%K -0.601%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.09%EV -4.22%E -2.36%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.91%EV -1.86%E -0.460%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-01 13:44
Pinnacle🎯4.39I 22.78%NM 21.96%EV -2.27%E -0.516%K -0.669%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.22%E -2.36%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.17%EV -3.32%E -0.832%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-01 13:49
1xBet🎯4.37I 22.88%NM 22.20%EV -2.71%E -0.621%K -0.805%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.90%EV -3.69%E -2.05%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.90%EV -1.62%E -0.399%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-01 13:48
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.56%EV -4.76%E -2.67%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 13:44
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -8.72%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.87%EV -9.04%E -5.32%K -12.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -6.71%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-01 13:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.