Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

32%

36%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 31.52%3.17fair odd

EV -2.30%

Edge -0.741%

Kelly -1.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.39%31.52%31.54%32.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.853.013.053.1035.09%33.20%32.79%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 35.63%2.81fair odd

EV -0.946%

Edge -0.340%

Kelly -0.532%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.77%35.63%35.62%36.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.702.722.7838.46%37.06%36.76%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.85%3.04fair odd

EV -1.44%

Edge -0.482%

Kelly -0.722%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.45%32.85%32.84%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.912.903.0035.71%34.39%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 31.52%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 35.63%; Draw: 32.85%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.78, with an expected value of -0.946%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.76%EV -2.30%E -0.741%K -1.09%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42%EV -0.946%E -0.340%K -0.532%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.82%EV -1.44%E -0.482%K -0.722%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-03-22 13:00
Pinnacle🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 31.39%EV -2.93%E -0.950%K -1.41%G +0.000%	2.74I 36.50%NM 35.28%EV -2.37%E -0.866%K -1.36%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -4.73%E -1.63%K -2.49%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-22 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.69%EV -3.87%E -1.27%K -1.89%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.54%EV -3.08%E -1.13%K -1.79%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.77%EV -3.09%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-22 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.47%EV -6.08%E -2.04%K -3.07%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -7.36%E -2.83%K -4.60%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 32.45%EV -5.06%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-22 13:00
Bovada🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -10.18%E -3.57%K -5.50%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.77%EV -5.58%E -2.11%K -3.38%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-22 12:58

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.