The School of Odds
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Kryliya Sovetov v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 15:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 2–1 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 48.87%2.05fair odd
EV -0.800%
Edge -0.394%
Kelly -0.776%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.38%48.87%48.50%49.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.941.922.0353.19%51.44%52.08%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.663%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.48%25.11%25.40%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.763.783.8827.78%26.61%26.46%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.02%3.84fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.503%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%26.02%26.10%26.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.643.683.7728.57%27.50%27.17%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 48.87%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 25.11%; Draw: 26.02%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.03, with an expected value of -0.800%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 48.50%EV -0.800%E -0.394%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.38%EV -2.57%E -0.663%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 26.12%EV -1.89%E -0.503%K -0.684%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-09 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.50%EV -3.24%E -1.64%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.40%EV -5.08%E -1.34%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.10%EV -4.24%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -6.17%E -3.22%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.35%E -2.29%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.62%E -2.15%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-09 15:05
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.72%EV -6.66%E -3.49%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.48%EV -2.57%E -0.663%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.81%EV -4.24%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:01
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -8.13%E -4.32%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.92%E -2.55%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 14:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.