The School of Odds
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Kryliya Sovetov v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 23.72%4.22fair odd
EV +0.105%
Edge +0.025%
Kelly +0.033%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.30%23.72%23.53%24.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.034.044.2226.32%24.80%24.75%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 50.57%1.98fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.67%50.57%50.84%51.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.871.9255.56%53.53%53.48%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -0.517%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.180%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.43%25.71%25.63%26.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.713.713.8728.17%26.98%26.95%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 23.72%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 50.57%; Draw: 25.71%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.216. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.220, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.105%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.22I 23.70%NM 23.32%EV +0.105%E +0.025%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.25%EV -2.90%E -1.51%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.43%EV -0.517%E -0.134%K -0.180%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-23 20:04
Marathon Bet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.32%EV -1.56%E -0.375%K -0.494%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.21%EV -4.42%E -2.34%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.47%EV -2.32%E -0.610%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 20:04
Pinnacle🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.53%EV -4.16%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.84%EV -5.43%E -2.90%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.63%EV -4.63%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 20:15
Bovada🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -6.30%E -1.59%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -8.97%E -4.98%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.46%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 20:13
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.86%E -2.59%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.67%EV -5.94%E -3.19%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -8.74%E -2.46%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.