The School of Odds
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Kryliya Sovetov v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 2–2 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 21.01%4.76fair odd
EV +0.006%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.49%21.01%20.64%21.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.524.534.7623.26%22.15%22.10%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 55.01%1.82fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.03%55.01%55.32%55.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.731.7760.24%57.86%57.64%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.98%4.17fair odd
EV -0.486%
Edge -0.117%
Kelly -0.154%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.61%23.98%24.04%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.903.983.944.1525.64%25.13%25.38%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 21.01%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 55.01%; Draw: 23.98%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.7597. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.7600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.006%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.76I 21.01%NM 20.68%EV +0.006%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.61%EV -2.63%E -1.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.72%EV -0.486%E -0.117%K -0.154%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-04 13:00
Pinnacle🎯4.68I 21.37%NM 20.49%EV -1.67%E -0.358%K -0.455%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.42%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.09%EV -4.56%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.68%EV -2.31%E -0.496%K -0.632%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.58%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.74%EV -2.88%E -0.712%K -0.945%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 10:20
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.56%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.47%EV -8.68%E -5.23%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -6.48%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:57
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -9.66%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.48%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:20
BetUS🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -9.66%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -4.28%E -2.46%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.48%E -1.66%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.