Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov v FC Fakel Voronezh

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 1–2 FC Fakel Voronezh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

50%

23%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 50.35%1.99fair odd

EV -3.83%

Edge -2.00%

Kelly -4.21%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

49.32%50.35%50.63%52.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.761.871.901.9156.82%53.57%52.77%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd

EV +1.74%

Edge +0.388%

Kelly +0.499%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.40%22.71%22.81%22.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.104.244.224.4824.39%23.60%23.70%22.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd

EV -1.41%

Edge -0.384%

Kelly -0.528%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.16%26.94%26.57%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.543.563.6629.41%28.28%28.09%27.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 50.35%; FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit): 22.71%; Draw: 26.94%. For FC Fakel Voronezh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.40%EV -7.86%E -4.29%K -9.46%G +0.000%	4.48I 22.32%NM 21.40%EV +1.74%E +0.388%K +0.499%G +0.009%	3.66I 27.32%NM 26.20%EV -1.41%E -0.384%K -0.528%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-17 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 51.11%EV -5.34%E -2.84%K -6.07%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.35%EV -2.35%E -0.547%K -0.712%G +0.000%	3.62I 27.62%NM 26.54%EV -2.48%E -0.686%K -0.948%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-17 10:39
Pinnacle🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.63%EV -3.83%E -2.00%K -4.21%G +0.000%	4.24I 23.58%NM 22.81%EV -3.71%E -0.876%K -1.15%G +0.000%	3.64I 27.47%NM 26.57%EV -1.94%E -0.534%K -0.737%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-10-17 10:45
Bovada🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.03%EV -11.38%E -6.47%K -14.97%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.62%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -5.72%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-17 10:52
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -3.83%E -2.00%K -4.21%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.89%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.41%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-17 10:55
BetUS🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -3.83%E -2.00%K -4.21%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.89%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -8.41%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-17 10:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.