Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

33%

34%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 33.13%3.02fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -0.542%

Kelly -0.817%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.84%33.13%33.18%33.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.882.922.9736.36%34.70%34.25%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 33.75%2.96fair odd

EV -1.45%

Edge -0.498%

Kelly -0.758%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.64%33.75%33.64%33.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.702.832.882.9237.04%35.34%34.72%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.12%3.02fair odd

EV -1.62%

Edge -0.546%

Kelly -0.824%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.67%33.12%33.18%33.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.882.892.9736.36%34.70%34.60%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 33.13%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 33.75%; Draw: 33.12%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.92, with an expected value of -1.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.97I 33.67%NM 33.14%EV -1.61%E -0.542%K -0.817%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.71%EV -1.45%E -0.498%K -0.758%G +0.000%	2.97I 33.67%NM 33.14%EV -1.62%E -0.546%K -0.824%G +0.000%	1.6%	2026-03-08 08:59
Pinnacle🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.84%EV -2.27%E -0.770%K -1.17%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.64%EV -2.80%E -0.974%K -1.49%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.52%EV -4.27%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-08 08:05
Marathon Bet🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -3.27%E -1.12%K -1.70%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.64%EV -2.80%E -0.974%K -1.49%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -3.28%E -1.12%K -1.71%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-08 08:54
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.82I 35.46%NM 33.36%EV -6.58%E -2.33%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 33.97%EV -6.52%E -2.35%K -3.68%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -4.60%E -1.60%K -2.45%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-08 09:44
Bovada🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -8.90%E -3.24%K -5.08%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -8.88%E -3.29%K -5.22%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -8.91%E -3.24%K -5.09%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-08 08:56

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.