Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 14:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 1–4 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

42%

28%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 41.74%2.40fair odd

EV -0.670%

Edge -0.282%

Kelly -0.486%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.76%41.74%41.70%41.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.242.302.312.3844.64%43.48%43.29%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd

EV -3.78%

Edge -1.09%

Kelly -1.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.24%27.73%27.88%28.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.383.423.4731.25%29.55%29.24%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.54%3.27fair odd

EV -2.89%

Edge -0.910%

Kelly -1.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.38%30.54%30.42%30.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.113.163.1833.33%32.11%31.65%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 41.74%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 27.73%; Draw: 30.54%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -0.670%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -0.670%E -0.282%K -0.486%G +0.000%	3.38I 29.59%NM 28.71%EV -6.28%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 30.52%EV -2.89%E -0.910%K -1.33%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-16 13:49
Pinnacle🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.70%EV -3.17%E -1.37%K -2.40%G +0.000%	3.47I 28.82%NM 27.88%EV -3.78%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 30.42%EV -2.89%E -0.910%K -1.33%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-08-16 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.55%EV -3.59%E -1.55%K -2.74%G +0.000%	3.42I 29.24%NM 28.07%EV -5.17%E -1.51%K -2.14%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.38%EV -3.50%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-16 13:25
Bovada🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-08-16 13:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.95%EV -6.51%E -2.91%K -5.25%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -4.34%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.86%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-16 13:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.