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Kryliya Sovetov v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 12:30 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 0–2 FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 33.04%3.03fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -0.978%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.92%33.04%33.04%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.892.902.9435.71%34.65%34.48%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 37.09%2.70fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.788%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%37.09%37.09%37.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.582.592.6440.00%38.82%38.61%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.87%3.35fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.991%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%29.87%29.88%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.203.2432.79%31.53%31.25%30.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 33.04%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 37.09%; Draw: 29.87%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -2.08%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.98%EV -2.88%E -0.978%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.72%EV -2.08%E -0.788%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.30%EV -4.40%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-08 12:20
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 33.04%EV -3.21%E -1.09%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.09%EV -3.19%E -1.22%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.88%EV -3.21%E -0.991%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-08 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.11%EV -4.20%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.07%EV -3.93%E -1.52%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -3.81%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 12:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.96%EV -5.52%E -1.93%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.11%EV -5.79%E -2.28%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.93%EV -5.90%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 12:09
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -7.50%E -2.68%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -7.27%E -2.91%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.89%E -2.91%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 12:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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