Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov v FC Akron Tolyatti

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 4–1 FC Akron Tolyatti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

42%

30%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 42.20%2.37fair odd

EV -2.51%

Edge -1.09%

Kelly -1.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.02%42.20%42.20%42.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.242.252.3146.51%44.59%44.35%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit)

Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd

EV -2.12%

Edge -0.652%

Kelly -0.941%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.88%30.12%30.12%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.163.163.2532.79%31.70%31.65%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd

EV +0.194%

Edge +0.054%

Kelly +0.074%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.06%27.68%27.68%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.353.483.463.6229.85%28.78%28.86%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 42.20%; FC Akron Tolyatti (Visit): 30.12%; Draw: 27.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.194%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 42.57%EV -2.51%E -1.09%K -1.91%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%EV -2.12%E -0.652%K -0.941%G +0.000%	3.62I 27.62%NM 27.17%EV +0.194%E +0.054%K +0.074%G +0.000%	1.7%	2026-05-17 06:20
Pinnacle🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -4.20%E -1.85%K -3.30%G +0.000%	3.17I 31.55%NM 30.35%EV -4.53%E -1.43%K -2.09%G +0.000%	3.53I 28.33%NM 27.26%EV -2.30%E -0.651%K -0.908%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.14%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -5.90%E -1.73%K -2.46%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-17 06:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.02%EV -5.46%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.39%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-17 07:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.