The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kryliya Sovetov v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 36.35%2.75fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.690%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.97%36.35%36.35%36.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.632.642.7039.22%37.99%37.88%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 35.76%2.80fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%35.76%35.70%36.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.662.702.7139.22%37.62%37.04%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.89%3.59fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -0.954%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.65%27.89%27.95%28.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.413.463.5030.30%29.29%28.90%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 36.35%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 35.76%; Draw: 27.89%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%EV -1.86%E -0.690%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%EV -3.44%E -1.27%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.07%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-11 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -3.32%E -1.25%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.69%EV -3.08%E -1.14%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.95%EV -3.50%E -1.01%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 10:49
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.65%EV -4.04%E -1.53%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.70%EV -3.08%E -1.14%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -2.38%E -0.681%K -0.954%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 10:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.03%EV -5.13%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -6.30%E -2.41%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -6.57%E -1.96%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 10:55
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.81%E -3.45%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -7.96%E -2.41%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 10:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.