The School of Odds
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Kryliya Sovetov v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 11:30 UTC

Final: Kryliya Sovetov 1–1 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kryliya Sovetov (Local)

Prediction 27.19%3.68fair odd
EV +6.31%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.137%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.79%27.19%27.25%28.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.643.683.9129.85%27.49%27.17%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 47.35%2.11fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.25%47.35%47.42%50.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.962.002.0454.95%51.02%50.00%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.46%3.93fair odd
EV +0.818%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.276%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.47%25.46%25.33%25.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.803.823.9627.40%26.32%26.18%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kryliya Sovetov (Local): 27.19%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 47.35%; Draw: 25.46%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 24.79%EV +6.31%E +1.61%K +2.17%G +0.137%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.74%EV -9.56%E -5.01%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.47%EV +0.818%E +0.207%K +0.276%G +0.002%3.2%2026-04-18 11:20
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV +0.604%E +0.163%K +0.224%G +0.001%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.58%EV -13.82%E -7.59%K -16.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.53%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 11:18
Marathon Bet🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 26.29%EV +0.060%E +0.016%K +0.022%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.38%EV -5.30%E -2.65%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.33%EV -2.75%E -0.719%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 11:20
Pinnacle🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -3.47%E -0.979%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%EV -3.40%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.33%EV -2.75%E -0.719%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -8.91%E -2.66%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.25%EV -3.88%E -1.91%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -7.07%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.