The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 13.60%7.35fair odd
EV +6.49%
Edge +0.829%
Kelly +0.950%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 7.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.43%13.58%13.60%14.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.407.177.287.8315.63%13.96%13.75%12.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 65.80%1.52fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -10.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.90%65.82%65.80%68.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.441.4574.63%70.51%69.69%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.60%4.85fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.524%
Kelly +0.656%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.40%20.61%20.60%20.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.674.704.9822.73%21.41%21.28%20.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 13.60%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 65.80%; Draw: 20.60%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯7.83I 12.77%NM 12.43%EV +6.49%E +0.829%K +0.950%G +0.062%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.04%EV -5.91%E -4.13%K -13.75%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.54%EV +2.61%E +0.524%K +0.656%G +0.017%2.8%2026-03-08 08:54
Pinnacle🎯7.51I 13.32%NM 12.80%EV +2.14%E +0.285%K +0.329%G +0.007%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.78%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 20.42%EV -2.95%E -0.627%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-08 08:55
Marathon Bet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 13.18%EV -0.716%E -0.098%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.35%EV -4.60%E -3.17%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.854%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 08:54
Bovada🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -1.40%E -0.193%K -0.223%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -11.83%E -8.83%K -34.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.854%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-08 08:53
BetOnline.ag🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 14.02%EV -8.88%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.24%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.74%EV -6.66%E -1.47%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 08:54
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -12.96%E -2.02%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.90%EV -7.23%E -5.13%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-08 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.