The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gazovik Orenburg v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 13:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 0–3 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 10.50%9.52fair odd
EV +0.907%
Edge +0.094%
Kelly +0.105%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 9.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.01%10.63%10.50%11.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.898.919.6112.50%11.25%11.23%10.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 71.31%1.40fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -8.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.72%71.16%71.31%72.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.331.3676.92%75.38%75.47%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.19%5.50fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.159%
Kelly -0.195%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.61%18.20%18.19%18.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.175.205.4520.41%19.34%19.25%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 10.50%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 71.31%; Draw: 18.19%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.907%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯9.61I 10.41%NM 10.01%EV +0.907%E +0.094%K +0.105%G +0.001%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.80%EV -4.44%E -3.32%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 18.19%EV -3.78%E -0.714%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯9.40I 10.64%NM 10.21%EV -1.30%E -0.138%K -0.155%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.17%EV -5.16%E -3.88%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.61%EV -0.867%E -0.159%K -0.195%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 08:28
1xBet🎯9.21I 10.86%NM 10.51%EV -3.29%E -0.358%K -0.401%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 71.19%EV -3.02%E -2.22%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 18.30%EV -3.78%E -0.714%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-02 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯8.60I 11.63%NM 10.81%EV -9.70%E -1.13%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.96%EV -6.58%E -5.03%K -21.24%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -7.23%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 12:49
Bovada🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -10.75%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.30%E -5.61%K -24.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 12:54
Codere (IT)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -16.00%E -2.00%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -5.87%E -4.45%K -18.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 07:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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