The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 10:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.404%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.26%23.76%23.79%24.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.973.984.1526.32%25.20%25.16%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 51.82%1.93fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.27%51.80%51.82%52.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.831.831.9156.50%54.60%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.39%4.10fair odd
EV -0.740%
Edge -0.182%
Kelly -0.241%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.11%24.44%24.39%24.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.903.904.0727.03%25.67%25.64%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 23.79%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 51.82%; Draw: 24.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.07, with an expected value of -0.740%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.27%EV -1.27%E -0.307%K -0.404%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.47%EV -4.65%E -2.53%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.26%EV -2.93%E -0.737%K -0.985%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 10:00
1xBet🎯4.07I 24.57%NM 24.21%EV -3.18%E -0.780%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.58%EV -1.02%E -0.534%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 24.21%EV -0.740%E -0.182%K -0.241%G +0.000%1.5%2026-03-22 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%EV -2.57%E -1.37%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -2.45%E -0.612%K -0.816%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 10:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -9.76%E -2.64%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 04:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.30%EV -8.65%E -2.25%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.27%EV -5.68%E -3.12%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -6.84%E -1.79%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 10:00
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.32%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.