The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 14:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 1–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 35.16%2.84fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +2.41%
Growth +0.115%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%35.21%35.16%35.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.752.9838.46%36.30%36.30%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 37.08%2.70fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.40%37.03%37.08%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.492.532.5843.48%40.16%39.53%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.76%3.60fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.571%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.34%27.75%27.76%28.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.423.413.5530.30%29.21%29.37%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 35.16%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 37.08%; Draw: 27.76%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.56%EV +4.78%E +1.60%K +2.41%G +0.115%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -10.27%E -4.24%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV -1.45%E -0.410%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-14 13:50
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -1.55%E -0.554%K -0.862%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -14.72%E -6.40%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 13:49
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.07%EV -2.96%E -1.07%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.51%EV -4.33%E -1.68%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.42%EV -2.01%E -0.569%K -0.794%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -3.31%E -1.20%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.35%EV -4.70%E -1.83%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.74%EV -3.95%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.57%EV -7.18%E -2.72%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.40%EV -4.33%E -1.68%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -7.01%E -2.09%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 13:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -8.58%E -3.30%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.87%EV -7.67%E -3.08%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -8.39%E -2.54%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.