The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 09:00 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 0–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 30.68%3.26fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.534%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.68%30.99%31.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.093.163.143.3032.36%31.65%31.85%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 44.68%2.24fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.35%44.68%44.35%45.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.122.1850.00%47.44%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.64%4.06fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.730%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.36%24.64%24.66%24.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.853.913.9727.03%25.97%25.58%25.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 30.68%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 44.68%; Draw: 24.64%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.41%EV +1.23%E +0.372%K +0.534%G +0.007%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.77%EV -5.27%E -2.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.82%EV -3.65%E -0.933%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-18 08:49
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -3.37%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -10.64%E -5.32%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -8.82%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 08:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -3.68%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.34%EV -7.96%E -3.86%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.59%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 09:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.99%EV -4.29%E -1.38%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -2.59%E -1.19%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -3.40%E -0.868%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 08:45
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 31.29%EV -5.21%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -2.59%E -1.19%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.36%EV -2.17%E -0.546%K -0.730%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-18 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.