The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gazovik Orenburg v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 09:30 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 1–0 Kryliya Sovetov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 48.68%2.05fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.90%48.68%49.04%49.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.961.972.0153.19%51.07%50.76%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -0.680%
Edge -0.161%
Kelly -0.211%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.24%23.54%23.28%24.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.084.154.2225.64%24.53%24.10%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.78%3.60fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.428%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.55%27.78%27.68%28.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.453.493.5629.85%28.99%28.65%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 48.68%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 23.54%; Draw: 27.78%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.22, with an expected value of -0.680%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 49.00%EV -2.15%E -1.07%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 23.34%EV -0.680%E -0.161%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.66%EV -1.10%E -0.308%K -0.428%G +0.000%1.5%2026-05-10 09:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.08%EV -4.10%E -2.08%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.30%EV -2.33%E -0.561%K -0.739%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -2.76%E -0.789%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-10 09:04
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.07%EV -4.10%E -2.08%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.24%EV -2.09%E -0.503%K -0.662%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.70%EV -3.04%E -0.871%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 09:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%EV -4.58%E -2.34%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -8.21%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.93%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 09:04
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%EV -8.48%E -4.51%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -7.03%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -6.93%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 09:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.