The School of Odds

Gazovik Orenburg v FK Rostov

2026-07-26 11:30 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.727%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%38.64%38.64%38.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.492.5443%41%40%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 32.39%3.09fair odd
EV -0.889%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.432%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.08%32.39%32.39%32.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.852.962.963.0635%34%34%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.97%3.45fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.444%
Kelly -0.629%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.95%28.97%28.97%29.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.293.313.4032%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80%EV -1.85%E -0.727%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 32.21%EV -0.889%E -0.291%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%EV -1.51%E -0.444%K -0.629%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-10 16:30
Marathon Bet2.49I 40.16%NM 38.83%EV -3.78%E -1.52%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.23%EV -2.83%E -0.944%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.95%EV -3.25%E -0.972%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-10 16:30
Pinnacle2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -4.17%E -1.68%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -5.10%E -1.74%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.99%EV -4.70%E -1.43%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 16:30
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 38.90%EV -9.19%E -3.91%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.69%E -2.70%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -8.75%E -2.78%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-10 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is the most recent time we recorded each book's price — on the default model, when it last changed, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.