Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 16:30 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 2–1 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 35.73%2.80fair odd
EV -0.310%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.173%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%35.73%35.99%36.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.702.682.7937.74%37.09%37.31%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 33.64%2.97fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.07%33.64%33.34%34.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.802.812.9137.74%35.77%35.59%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.27fair odd
EV +0.453%
Edge +0.138%
Kelly +0.198%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.49%30.63%30.66%31.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.123.133.2833.56%32.09%31.95%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet2.68I 37.31%NM 36.09%EV -4.24%E -1.58%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.42%EV -5.46%E -1.94%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV +0.453%E +0.138%K +0.198%G +0.001%3.4%2026-07-26 16:21
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 34.79%EV -0.310%E -0.111%K -0.173%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.79%EV -6.14%E -2.20%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.43%EV -2.30%E -0.722%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 16:25
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 36.18%EV -4.96%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.07%EV -2.10%E -0.721%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.75%EV -4.14%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 16:15
Bovada2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -5.31%E -2.00%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -10.85%E -4.09%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.12%E -2.71%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 16:23
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 34.92%EV -3.53%E -1.31%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.44%EV -5.13%E -1.82%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.74%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.