The School of Odds
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Gazovik Orenburg v FC Nizhny Novgorod

Kickoff: 2026-04-22 14:30 UTC

Final: Gazovik Orenburg 2–1 FC Nizhny Novgorod

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gazovik Orenburg (Local)

Prediction 52.80%1.89fair odd
EV +0.316%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.351%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.12%52.80%52.80%53.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.821.811.9056.18%54.79%55.25%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit)

Prediction 21.96%4.55fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.463%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.67%21.96%21.96%22.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.284.284.4624.39%23.36%23.36%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -0.866%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.23%25.24%25.24%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.673.673.8328.57%27.25%27.21%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gazovik Orenburg (Local): 52.80%; FC Nizhny Novgorod (Visit): 21.96%; Draw: 25.24%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.316%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.12%EV +0.316%E +0.166%K +0.351%G +0.001%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.28%EV -4.26%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.61%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-22 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.10%EV -3.91%E -2.15%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.67%EV -2.07%E -0.463%K -0.597%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.23%EV -3.32%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-22 14:19
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -4.96%E -2.76%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.97%E -2.43%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 14:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.50%EV -6.02%E -3.38%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -7.77%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-22 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.